Apple's black hole
When Apple sets the price of its products it creates a pricing point black hole, a point at which any products of similar utility that hover around that price are sucked in and either destroyed by spaghettification or a wall of fire.This risk of destruction is what is happening with the Apple Watch already, anything nearing the £299 mark is finding itself in need of heading away from that point in space. This particularly applies to the more advanced end of the fitness band market.
Fitness bands and Planet Microsoft
So where do these products head? Well, Microsoft has obversely created a gravitational pull around the £169.99 price point, at which it has set the Microsoft Band. Here is a seemingly safe haven for devices of similar utility, especially if they have something different to contribute.The Microsoft Band ticks a good many of the premium fitness boxes, especially heart-rate monitor and GPS, but a watch like the TomTom Multi Sport Cardio (currently £179.99 on Amazon) has in addition to these features waterproofing and a well-designed ghost run feature. Not to mention a strap and overall design that has been well received by reviewers.
The Fitbit Surge exists in a similar space featurewise and pricewise to the TomTom and Microsoft Band, and so I expect it too will be drawn ever closer to that £169.99 price point as the pressure exerted by the other two products squeeze it into the small dormitory room we find there. (And in fact the watch can currently be found on Wiggle for £179.99.)
Outside wanting to come in
Knocking on the door of that same room already, wanting to make a bed, is the LG G Watch R. It is an Android Wear watch with a heart-rate monitor but as I understand it, the watch does not have its own GPS. It is also, unlike the fitness watches, tied to a single platform. But then both these things are true of the Apple Watch.And one thing I have about GPS, is that even though it's desirable, won't most people in real-world use taking part in an activity like running or cycling across a distance that necessitates GPS often have a phone with them anyway, in case of accident, emergency or flat-tire.
Talking of flat-tires, outside kicking gravel is the Moto 360 (currently £163 on Amazon), briefly the iconic darling of Android Wear, now unable to squeeze itself into the heart-rate monitor club and already heading south to warmer climes.
Lessons from a screen-free world
On its way south, the Moto 360 might give a glance and a nod at the Jawbone UP3 but the only thing that really connects them will be price. Its RRP is £149.99 but its purpose is mainly to provide health and fitness tracking rather than smartwatch features (even in a cross-over way).
The thing that makes it stand out is its bioimpedance sensor for measuring heart rate, respiration and galvanic skin response. And if this proves to be something that works as well or even better than optical heart-rate monitors then we might well see it being adopted next year by smart watches and other fitness bands for its space- and weight-saving properties.
Only time will tell, the UP3 was on last checking due to be released tomorrow (20 April) in the US, but not until later in 2015 for the UK. I can see one of two alternative outcomes for this device, either its price will be deemed too close to the gravitational pull of Planet Microsoft, a place where it doesn't have the ability to breath the air due to its lack of screen and will perish, or it will be deemed a hero for its bioimpedance sensor.
Sensors vs screens
The arguments about the UP3's sensors started months ago, and the Microsoft Band already features a galvanic skin sensor which dents the UP3's chances of survival further. Although it must be noted that Jawbone discuss how the sensors on the UP3 are versatile and will be able to measure more and more through software updates.
The question is how many people are aware of a galvanic skin measurement or what to do with it when its main use is in polygraph tests. Are we going to have a Jeremy Kyle app that can tell how many lies we've told? It could be argued that similarly who needs to really know their heart rate constantly, if our heart rate is in the normal range. What purpose will this data serve? For fitness the argument is that knowing your heart rate (and probably other stuff) helps to determine zones of fat burn and endurance. Otherwise, it's just there for you as another statistic.
The question is how many people are aware of a galvanic skin measurement or what to do with it when its main use is in polygraph tests. Are we going to have a Jeremy Kyle app that can tell how many lies we've told? It could be argued that similarly who needs to really know their heart rate constantly, if our heart rate is in the normal range. What purpose will this data serve? For fitness the argument is that knowing your heart rate (and probably other stuff) helps to determine zones of fat burn and endurance. Otherwise, it's just there for you as another statistic.
Conclusion
It's very easy to be drawn to smartwatches and fitness bands thinking wouldn't it be great to have everything, but when asked if I'd rather know my heart rate or be able to ghost race myself, I'd answer the latter. And since I've gone this long without either, do I need a fitness band or smart watch at all?
The success for Apple will be because like the iPad, their watch is a blank canvas for innovation, and the things it lacks can be added through apps. And at some point a lot of people will see an app and think, 'actually if I had that on my wrist it would be really useful'. Whereas other devices, though often brilliant in one area in particular, have limitations of no-screen, e-ink or a small screen, and while these are advantages for battery life, in terms of flexibility they are a limitation.
At the moment I'm not jumping in any direction. If I have the need to write an app for a particular device then it will become a necessary investment, or if a manufacturer sends me a device for review (you can get in touch on twitter btw), then no doubt I'll be sucked into this world. But for now I sit gazing through my telescope at far off worlds thinking about what they'd be like to visit.
At the moment I'm not jumping in any direction. If I have the need to write an app for a particular device then it will become a necessary investment, or if a manufacturer sends me a device for review (you can get in touch on twitter btw), then no doubt I'll be sucked into this world. But for now I sit gazing through my telescope at far off worlds thinking about what they'd be like to visit.
Update: The gravitational pull is strong
Gravity is in full evidence as the TomTom Multi Sport Cardio slips below the price of the Microsoft Band on the PCWorld and Currys websites to a price of £149.99. And the savvy will also pick up on some of the offers attached to the watches like the next race promotion and running shoe promotion (note: the latter is only applicable when the watch is purchased from certain outlets).
Second Update: Amazon follows suit
The TomTom Multi Sport Cardio has not just been pulled towards the Microsoft Band price point but is now entering full orbit. Amazon has reduced the price of the white/red edition of the watch to £149.99, while Currys/PCWorld is out of stock for both white/red and black/red editions following their price drop.
This hits the new Jawbone UP3 squarely on the ... well erm ... jaw. Its release price (for when it is released in the UK) has been set at £149.99. No doubt there will be plenty of skirmishes at different price points from that of the Microsoft Band downwards and this will be one of them.
Meanwhile, the FitBit devices are currently flying high in the Amazon charts despite reservations from reviewers about the size of the Surge. Also doing well at around the same price point is the Garmin Vivoactive, which doesn't have a built in heart rate monitor but is waterproof and has a colour screen, notifications and music control.
Further thoughts
It's hard to know what will happen to the fitness watch market over the next year, whether manufacturers will keep innovating separately or whether they will take up a shared platform like Android Wear or the cross-platform one on which the Microsoft Band is based. History tells us that they will struggle to go it alone but that there are also dangers of adopting a shared platform because of the further competition that happens on price.
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